Tuesday, June 28, 2016

PPP Public Policy Polling, Phone vs Internet, Methodolgy, Mode...


In 2012 presidential race, PPP used only live phone interviews to predict the outcome.

In 2016, PPP is using 80% phone interview and 20% internet survey to predict the race.

The difference is noteworthy:


October 26

National

Phone:  Clinton 46 - 40
Internet:  Clinton 47 - 28
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - 40

October 24

North Carolina

Phone:  Trump 48 - 46
Internet:  Clinton 53 - 28
Outcome:  Clinton 47 - 44

October 14

Florida (4-way)

Phone: even 46 - 46%
Internet: Clinton 44 - 25%
Outcome: Clinton 46 - 42%

October 12

Nevada

Phone: Trump 47 - 44%
Internet: Clinton 58 - 27%
Outcome: Clinton 47 - 43%

October 6

Ohio (4-way)

Phone: Trump 48 - 43%
Internet: Clinton 47 - 23%
Outcome: Clinton 44 - 43%

September 29

National (4-way)

Phone: Trump 46 - 42%
Internet: Clinton 54 - 18%
Outcome: Clinton 44 - 40%

Virginia

Phone: Clinton 47 - 44%
Internet: Clinton 42 - 22%
Outcome: Clinton 46 - 40%

Pennsylvania

Phone: Clinton 45 - 43%
Internet: Clinton 47 - 21%
Outcome: Clinton 45 - 39%

Florida

Phone: Trump 48 - 44%
Internet: Clinton 47 - 25%
Outcome: Clinton 45 - 43%

Colorado

Phone: even at 44 - 44%
Internet: Clinton 56 - 28%
Outcome: Clinton 46 - 40%

September 21

North Carolina

Phone:  Trump 49 - Clinton 44 - Johnson 4%
Internet:  Clinton 35 - Trump 29 - Johnson 12%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 43 - Johnson 6%

September 12

Nevada

Phone:  Trump 47 - 44%
Internet:  Clinton 49 - 20%
Outcome:  Clinton 45 - 42%

September 7

Florida

Phone:  Trump 52 - Clinton 41%
Internet:  Clinton 72 - Trump 22%
Outcome:  Clinton 47 - Trump 46%

Phone: Trump 50 - Clinton 39 - Johnson 5%
Internet: Clinton 60 - Trump 18 - Johnson 6%
Outcome: Trump 44 - Clinton 43 - Johnson 5%

September 1

Missouri

Phone:  Trump 51 - Clinton 40%
Internet:  Clinton 46 - Trump 32%
Outcome:  Trump 47 - Clinton 41%

North Carolina

Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 45%
Internet:  Clinton 44 - Trump 28%
Outcome:  Clinton 45 - Trump 44%


Ohio

Phone:  Clinton 46 - Trump 44%
Internet:  Clinton 45 - Trump 34%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%


Pennsylvania

Phone:  Clinton 47 - Trump 45%
Internet:  Clinton 51 - Trump 36%
Outcome:  Clinton 48 - Trump 43%


Arizona

Phone:  Trump 49 - Clinton 43%
Internet:  Clinton 46 - Trump 33%
Outcome:  Trump 46 - Clinton 43%


New Hampshire

Phone:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%
Internet:  Clinton 45 - Trump 32%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 40%


Wisconsin

Phone:  Clinton 47 - Trump 45%
Internet:  Clinton 51 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 48 - Trump 41%

August 30

National

Phone:  Clinton 47 - 45%
Internet:  Clinton 53 - 32%
Outcome:  Clinton 48 - 43%

August 17

Missouri

Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 43%
Internet:  Clinton 40 - Trump 34%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 42%

August 16

Texas

Phone:  Trump 56 - Clinton 39%
Internet:  Clinton 65 - Trump 26%
Outcome:  Trump 50 - Clinton 44%  


Phone:  Trump 50 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 49 - Trump 20 - Johnson 2 - Stein 2%
Outcome:  Trump 44 - Clinton 38 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%


August 9

North Carolina

Phone:  Trump 51 - Clinton 43%
Internet:  Clinton 61 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 47 - Trump 46%

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 40 - Johnson 7 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 52 - Trump 18 - Johnson 9 - Stein 1%
Outcome:  Clinton 43 - Trump 41 - Johnson 7 - Stein 2%


August 1

Pennsylvania

Phone:  Trump 52 - Clinton 44%
Internet:  Clinton 71 - Trump 20%
Outcome:  Clinton 49 - Trump 45%

Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 42 - Johnson 4 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 58 - Trump 16 - Johnson 2 - Stein 2%
Outcome:  Clinton 45 - Trump 42 - Johnson 4 - Stein 2%


July 31

National

Phone:  Trump 50 - Clinton 46%
Internet:  Clinton 66 - Trump 23%
Outcome:  Clinton 50 - Trump 45%


Phone:  Trump 46 - Clinton 43 - Johnson 6 - Stein 1%
Internet:  Clinton 58 - Trump 22 - Johnson 6 - Stein 5%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 41 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%


July 25

Ohio

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 45%
Internet:  Clinton 47 - Trump 35%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 45%

Phone:  Trump 45 - Clinton 40 - Johnson 4 - Stein 1%
Internet:  Clinton 37 - Trump 29 - Johnson 14 - Stein 7%
Outcome:  Trump 42 - Clinton 39 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%


July 15

Missouri

Phone:  Trump 52 - Clinton 40%
Internet:  Trump 42 - Clinton 40%
Outcome:  Trump 50 - Clinton 40%


Phone:  Trump 48 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Trump 35 - Clinton 33 - Johnson 10 - Stein 1%
Outcome:  Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1%


June 30

National

Phone:  Trump 50 - Clinton 44%
Internet:  Clinton 65 - Trump 22%
Outcome:  Clinton 48 - Trump 44%


Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 41 - Johnson 5 - Stein 2%
Internet:  Clinton 59 - Trump 20 - Johnson 6 - Stein 2%
Outcome:  Clinton 45 - Trump 41 - Johnson 5 - Stein 2%


June 28

Arizona

Phone:  Trump 46 - Clinton 38%
Internet:  Clinton 48 - Trump 37%
Outcome:  Trump 44 - Clinton 40%

Iowa

Phone:  Trump 43 - Clinton 41%
Internet:  Clinton 42 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 41 - Trump 39%

Pennsylvania

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 42%
Internet:  Clinton 67 - Trump 24%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%

Wisconsin
Phone:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%
Internet:  Clinton 50 - Trump 26%
Outcome:  Clinton 47 - Trump 39%

June 23

North Carolina

Internet:  Clinton 53 - Trump 33%
Outcome:  Clinton 46 - Trump 42%

June 16

Virginia

Phone:  Trump 44 - Clinton 41%
Internet:  Clinton 48 - Trump 20%
Outcome:  Clinton 42 - Trump 39%

June 8
 
Pennsylvania

Phone:  Trump 47 - Clinton 42%
Internet:  Clinton 52 - Trump 30%
Outcome:  Clinton 44 - Trump 44%

June 7

Florida

Phone:  Trump 49 - Clinton 42%
Internet:  Clinton 53 - Trump 29%
Outcome:  Trump 45 - Clinton 44%


June 1

Georgia

Phone:  Trump 53 - Clinton 37%
Internet:  Clinton 52 - Trump 31%
Outcome:  Trump 49 - Clinton 40%